Sunday, July 16, 2006

The Morning After

No one has addressed the question of "What Next?" Before anyone claims that its premature to ask, let me explain why that day is closer than it appears.

Canada, which first supported Israel, has now suffered the deaths of five [update: eight] of its citizens due to an Israeli air strike on Tyre. Regardless of whether the dead were carrying guns, funneling money, or just tourists, it will be hard politically for Canada to give Israel the backing it has until now. As airstrikes continue, the likelihood of other citizens, including Americans, being killed will increase, and will put pressure on others to blame Israel and call for restraint, despite the reality that the deaths are Hezbollah's fault.

Even if Canada and other countries stand fast, as they should, the next stage will be here pretty quickly. Hezbollah had an estimated 10-13,000 rockets. Hundreds of those, though less than a thousand, have been fired at Israel. Presumably the IAF has destroyed many more. As time progresses, those launching the rockets will be killed, patterns of launch will emerge, and Israels ability to detect and prevent rocket launches should rise. Those who coordinate the firings will slip up, be identified and eliminated. Hiding spots in Southern Lebanon will be neutralized.

With no ability to resupply, air, sea, and land cut off from foreign countries, Hezbollah will soon run out of rockets, or the means to launch them continuously. The situation will "normalize." Note that this makes it even more likely that Iran is using Hezbollah as a smoke screen. Its scary to think that Iran is willing to sacrifice Hezbollah, but why shouldn't they? Once they have nukes, the puppets aren't needed.

As a byproduct of success, once Hezbollah's infrastructure has been damaged and missile stores depleted, the world will pressure Israel to stop bombing. So either way, soon Israel will stop. With or without the soldiers returned. Lebanon can only take so much before its a no mans land filled with burned out wreckage.

Everyone wants to focus on today. Its where the action is, its fast paced and adrenaline filled. But it paralyzes us. There's no need to think, or no ability, when you're bombarded on all sides with the same news, over and over. The names change, the number killed change, but the story is the same. There are a hundred stories on every missile strike but not one asking the important question "What happens tomorrow?"